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起伏不定的石油行業(yè)，目前似乎正處于最新一輪頹勢的早期階段。
去年6月以來，原油價格暴跌了逾55％，降至每桶50美元（約合310元人民幣）。這是自2009年經(jīng)濟衰退的低谷期以來油價的最低點。
石油業(yè)分析師紛紛預(yù)測，油價可能會跌破每桶40美元，然后反彈。不過，就連持樂觀態(tài)度的人士也表示，年底之前很可能無法達到每桶70美元的價格。
為何油價會下降得如此之快？為何是現(xiàn)在？
這是個復(fù)雜的問題，但歸根結(jié)底還是關(guān)于供需關(guān)系的簡單經(jīng)濟學(xué)原理。
過去六年里，美國的石油產(chǎn)量幾乎翻了一倍，于是原本出口美國的部分石油需要另尋出路。曾向美國出口的沙特阿拉伯、尼日利亞和阿爾及利亞的原油，突然開始爭奪亞洲市場，使得出產(chǎn)國被迫降價。
從需求方面來看，歐洲和發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟正在走弱，而機動車的能效也正在提高。因此，對燃料的需求稍顯落后。
誰能從油價下跌中受益？
每個開機動車的人都可以告訴你，最近幾個月，每加侖汽油的價格下跌了1美元多（約合每升1.64元）。柴油、取暖油和天然氣的價格也出現(xiàn)大幅下滑?？傮w來看，這相當(dāng)于一次規(guī)模不小的減稅——在接下來的一年時間里，每個美國普通家庭的荷包里都會多出至少1000美元。歐洲和世界各地的消費者也將享受到類似的好處。
誰將蒙受損失？
首先是出產(chǎn)石油的國家和州。將面臨經(jīng)濟——或許還有政治——動蕩的石油國家，遠遠不止委內(nèi)瑞拉、伊朗、尼日利亞、厄瓜多爾、巴西和俄羅斯。海灣國家很可能會縮小在世界各地的投資規(guī)模，或許還會削減對埃及等國的援助。
在美國，阿拉斯加、北達科他、得克薩斯、俄克拉荷馬和路易斯安那將面臨經(jīng)濟挑戰(zhàn)。一些負債累累的規(guī)模較小的石油公司可能會倒閉，從而讓貸款給它們的銀行承壓。
石油輸出國組織遇到了什么情況？
就像其他大宗商品一樣，石油的價格有升也有降。在過去，石油輸出國組織（Organization of thePetroleum Exporting Countries，簡稱歐佩克）經(jīng)常削減原油產(chǎn)量來穩(wěn)定價格。伊朗、委內(nèi)瑞拉和阿爾及利亞正在敦促該組織如法炮制，但沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長國及美國在海灣地區(qū)的其他盟國拒絕減產(chǎn)。與此同時，伊拉克實際上正在增加產(chǎn)量。
沙特官員表示，如果他們減產(chǎn)讓油價回升，沙特就會失去市場份額，只能令競爭對手獲益。
他們聲稱自己樂見油價繼續(xù)深跌，但一些石油業(yè)分析師認為，這只是在虛張聲勢。
存在壓低油價的陰謀嗎？
當(dāng)下陰謀論滿天飛。就連一些石油公司高管都在私下里指出，沙特想要損害俄羅斯和伊朗的利益，美國也是如此——這樣的理由足以讓兩個石油生產(chǎn)大國去壓低油價。畢竟，20世紀80年代油價的不斷下跌確實在一定程度上促成了蘇聯(lián)的解體。
然而，并沒有證據(jù)來支持這些陰謀論，而且沙特阿拉伯和美國很少能夠順暢地相互配合。
除此之外，考慮到石油公司需追逐利潤并要對股東負責(zé)，奧巴馬政府實在難以協(xié)調(diào)數(shù)以百計的油企的石油開采工作。
油價何時可能反彈？
不會很快。美國及其他一些國家的石油產(chǎn)量仍在增加。很多華爾街投行預(yù)測，油價在未來幾個月興許會跌至每桶40美元。
不過，原油產(chǎn)量可能會在下半年開始減少，價格到時候也會開始反彈。在石油的發(fā)展史中，起起落落總是反復(fù)上演。（中國進出口網(wǎng)）
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, appears to be in the early stages of itslatest downturn.
The price of oil has plunged more than 55 percent to under $50 a barrel since June. That is thelowest price since the depths of the 2009 recession.
Oil analysts predict that the price could fall below $40 before beginning to rebound. But evenoptimists say $70 a barrel by the end of the year is highly doubtful.
Why is the price of oil dropping so fast? Why now?
This a complicated question, but it boils down to the simple economics of supply and demand.
United States domestic production has nearly doubled over the last six years, pushing out oilimports that need to find another home. Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil that once found ahome in the United States is suddenly competing for Asian markets, and the producers areforced to drop prices.
On the demand side, the economies of Europe and developing countries are weakening andvehicles are becoming more energy-efficient. So demand for fuel is lagging a bit.
Who benefits from the price drop?
Any motorist can tell you gasoline prices have dropped more than a dollar a gallon in recentmonths. Diesel, heating oil and natural gas prices have also fallen sharply. All together, theyrepresent the equivalent of a sizable tax cut — putting $1,000 or more in the pockets of theaverage family over the next year. Europeans and consumers around the world will enjoy similarbenefits.
Who loses?
For starters, oil-producing countries and states. Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, Ecuador, Brazil andRussia are just a few petrostates that will suffer economic and perhaps even politicalturbulence. Persian Gulf states are likely to invest less money around the world, and may cutaid to countries like Egypt.
In the United States, Alaska, North Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana will face economicchallenges. Some smaller oil companies that are heavily in debt may go out of business,pressuring some banks that lend to them.
What happened to OPEC?
The price of oil, as with other commodities, goes up and down. And in the past the Organizationof the Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC, has frequently cut production to firm upprices. Iran, Venezuela and Algeria are pressing the cartel to do so again, but Saudi Arabia, theUnited Arab Emirates and other gulf allies are refusing to cut. At the same time, Iraq is actuallypumping more.
Saudi officials have said that if they cut production and prices go up, they will lose market shareand merely benefit their competitors.
They say they are willing to see oil prices go much lower, but some oil analysts think they aremerely bluffing.
Is there a conspiracy to bring the price of oil down?
There are a number of conspiracy theories floating around. Even some oil executives arequietly noting that the Saudis want to hurt Russia and Iran, and so does the United States —motivation enough for the two oil-producing nations to force down prices. Dropping oil prices inthe 1980s did help bring down the Soviet unio, after all.
But there is no evidence to support the conspiracy theories, and Saudi Arabia and the UnitedStates rarely coordinate smoothly.
And the Obama administration is hardly in a position to coordinate the drilling of hundreds ofoil companies seeking profits and answering to their shareholders.
When are oil prices likely to recover?
Not anytime soon. Oil production is still increasing in the United States and some othercountries. Many Wall Street banks are predicting that the oil price could fall as low as $40 abarrel in the coming months.
But production is likely to begin declining in the second half of the year, and then crude priceswill also begin to recover. The history of oil is a history of booms and busts followed by more ofthe same.
