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周三發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，隨著痛苦的再平衡過程緩緩向前推進(jìn)，中國消費(fèi)者正一步步地從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的兩個(gè)傳統(tǒng)引擎——制造業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)——那里接過接力棒。
今年第三季度，制造業(yè)和建筑業(yè)的放緩把中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的同比增速拉低至6.9%，為2009年以來的最低水平。最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，這兩個(gè)行業(yè)仍未見底。
中國國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示，今年1月至10月，全國城鎮(zhèn)固定資產(chǎn)投資同比增長10.2%，為2000年來最慢增速，也是連續(xù)第17個(gè)月放緩。作為制造業(yè)的衡量指標(biāo)之一，10月份的工業(yè)增加值的同比增速為5.6%，與今年4月創(chuàng)下的6年低點(diǎn)持平。
消費(fèi)者幫助挽回了頹勢（雙十一這天，有大批中國消費(fèi)者出手購物）。10月份，社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額同比增長11%，為今年最快增速。中國汽車工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)(CAAM)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，10月份乘用車銷量也增長強(qiáng)勁，同比增加13.3%，至190萬輛，增速為17個(gè)月來最快。
房地產(chǎn)對(duì)固定資產(chǎn)投資增長的拖累最顯著。10月份，房地產(chǎn)投資同比增速放緩至2%，為2004年開始統(tǒng)計(jì)該數(shù)據(jù)以來的最低水平。經(jīng)歷了一年的下滑后，住房銷量和價(jià)格在近幾個(gè)月都開始回升，但鑒于未售存量房依然積壓，開發(fā)商們正在推遲建造新屋。
中國政府增加了財(cái)政支出，希望填補(bǔ)投資缺口。今年1月至10月，地方政府固定資產(chǎn)投資同比增長了10.6%。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)期，寬松性政策（包括自去年11月以來6次降息）將幫助中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長在今年余下的時(shí)間里企穩(wěn)。
鋼、銅和水泥等基礎(chǔ)大宗商品價(jià)格走低，加劇了固定資產(chǎn)投資和工業(yè)產(chǎn)值增速的放緩。經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后，今年1月至10月，工業(yè)增加值同比增長了6.1%，但這仍是自2009年初以來的最慢增速。（中國進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
China’s consumers are gradually picking up the baton from the traditional economic engines of manufacturing and real estate, data released on Wednesday show, as the painful rebalancing process inches ahead.
The slowdown of factory activity and construction pushed Chinese gross domestic product growth to its lowest annual pace since 2009 in the third quarter at 6.9 per cent, and the latest data suggest these sectors have not yet bottomed out.
Urban fixed-asset investment grew at an annual rate of 10.2 per cent in the first 10 months of the year, the slowest pace since 2000 and the 17th straight month of declines, according to the statistics bureau. Industrial production, a gauge of the manufacturing sector, matched the six-year low of 5.6 per cent annual growth touched in April.
Shoppers, out in force for Singles Day, helped take up the slack. Retail sales grew 11 per cent in October, the swiftest annual rate this year. Passenger car sales also grew strongly, rising by 13.3 per cent to 1.9m units in October, the fastest pace in 17 months, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Property was the biggest drag on fixed-asset investment, with real estate investment dipping to 2 per cent, the slowest pace since data began in 2004. Home sales and prices have begun to creep higher in recent months following a year of declines, but developers are delaying new construction in the face of unsold inventory gluts.
Beijing has ramped up fiscal spending to fill the gap. Fixed-asset investment by local governments rose 10.6 per cent in the year to October.
Economists expect easing measures, including six interest rate cuts since last November, to help stabilise growth through the rest of the year.
Lower-priced basic commodities such as steel, copper and cement exaggerate the deceleration in growth of fixed investment and industrial output. In inflation-adjusted terms, industrial production grew 6.1 per cent in October, although that is still the weakest pace since early 2009.
