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英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》對(duì)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，若不是全球大宗商品價(jià)格暴跌，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在第一季度的擴(kuò)張速度將不到6%。這令人擔(dān)憂政府實(shí)現(xiàn)7%全年增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)的能力。
中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局(NBS)在4月發(fā)布的第一季度簡(jiǎn)報(bào)中，報(bào)告國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增加了7%，但并未提供整體增長(zhǎng)數(shù)字的三個(gè)組成部分的數(shù)據(jù)：消費(fèi)、投資和凈出口。
中國(guó)政府近年一直試圖提振消費(fèi)，同時(shí)推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)擺脫傳統(tǒng)上對(duì)信貸助燃投資的依賴。凈出口數(shù)字在中國(guó)對(duì)貿(mào)易伙伴有整體順差的情況下會(huì)提振增長(zhǎng)數(shù)字，傳統(tǒng)上，它對(duì)產(chǎn)出的影響較小。
根據(jù)最近才可獲得的中國(guó)第一季度GDP分類(lèi)數(shù)據(jù)，凈出口為中國(guó)7%的增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)了1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。相比之下，凈出口在2014年7.4%（中國(guó)25年來(lái)最慢的年度擴(kuò)張速度）的增長(zhǎng)數(shù)字中只占0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
與此同時(shí)，消費(fèi)和投資分別占第一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的4.5和1.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。若沒(méi)有來(lái)自凈出口的1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的提振，中國(guó)第一季度增長(zhǎng)數(shù)字將低得多，大約為5.7%。
“這相當(dāng)令人擔(dān)憂，”咨詢公司信源(Trusted Sources)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家莊波表示。“這就是為什么（最近幾個(gè)月）政府的政策變得更加積極的原因。”
中國(guó)政府自去年11月以來(lái)已四次降息，力求將增長(zhǎng)穩(wěn)定在7%左右。中國(guó)將于下周公布第二季度GDP估算數(shù)字。（中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
China’s economy would have expanded at less than 6 per cent in the first quarter if not for the collapse in global commodity prices, according to data reviewed by the Financial Times, raising concerns about the government’s ability to hit its 7 per cent growth target for the full year.
At its first-quarter briefing in April, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that gross domestic product had increased 7 per cent but did not provide a breakdown of the growth figure into its three components — consumption, investment and net exports.
The Chinese government has been trying to boost consumption while weaning the economy off its traditional reliance on credit-fuelled investment. The net export figure, which boosts growth when China enjoys an overall surplus with its trading partners, has traditionally had a much more modest impact on output.
According to a breakdown of China’s first-quarter GDP figure that has only recently become available, net exports contributed 1.3 percentage points of the country’s seven per cent growth. By comparison, net exports accounted for just 0.1 percentage points of the 7.4 per cent growth figure reported for 2014 — China’s slowest annual rate of expansion in a quarter century.
Consumption and investment, meanwhile, accounted for 4.5 and 1.2 percentage points of first-quarter growth respectively. Without the 1.3 percentage point boost from net exports, China’s first-quarter growth figure would have been much lower at about 5.7 per cent.
“It’s quite worrisome,” said Bo Zhuang, China economist at consultancy Trusted Sources. “That’s why the government’s policies have been much more aggressive [over recent months].”
The Chinese government, which will release its second-quarter GDP estimate next week, has cut interest rates four times since November in a bid to keep growth steady at about 7 per cent.
