鐵礦石價格最近已經(jīng)觸及5年低點，至每噸80美元。但這一規(guī)模巨大的供應(yīng)浪潮并非令鐵礦石價格承壓的唯一因素，有關(guān)中國需求放緩的擔(dān)憂也是一大因素。中國是全球最大煉鋼國和海運鐵礦石消費國。
此際，嘉能可(Glencore)正與力拓(Rio Tinto)就兩家公司可能的合并進行討論。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師表示，鐵礦石行業(yè)利潤率長期高于趨勢水平的狀況已告結(jié)束，原因在于大型生產(chǎn)商向新的低成本產(chǎn)能投入了數(shù)十億美元資金。
盡管鐵礦石價格下滑，但三大鐵礦石生產(chǎn)商——必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、力拓(Rio)和巴西淡水河谷(Vale)并不計劃改變其提高產(chǎn)量的戰(zhàn)略，不過一些主要股東正對是否應(yīng)給本已供應(yīng)過度的市場增加更多產(chǎn)能提出質(zhì)疑。
作為低成本鐵礦石生產(chǎn)商，必和必拓及其競爭對手正押注于鐵礦石價格將企穩(wěn)，同時市場將再度平衡，因為支出更高的較小規(guī)模礦商已變得不具競爭力，并被迫限產(chǎn)。
必和必拓本周表示，即便是在目前的價格上，澳大利亞的業(yè)務(wù)擴張也會給股東回報。
該公司表示，提高產(chǎn)量的戰(zhàn)略是合理的，因為這將充分利用其在西澳皮巴拉地區(qū)鐵礦石礦區(qū)的投資。過去5年，該公司已在該地區(qū)投資220億美元。
The price of benchmark iron ore for delivery into China has fallen by more than 40 per cent this year as a wave of new supply, mainly from mines in Australia, has hit the market.
However, the supply tsunami is not the only factor weighing on iron ore, which recently hit a five-year low and is now trading at $80 a tonne. Concerns about a slowdown in demand from China, the world’s biggest steelmaker and consumer of seaborne iron ore, have also taken hold.
It is against this backdro that Glencore sounded out Rio Tinto about a potential merger of the two companies.
Goldman Sachs analysts say the iron ore industry’s long period of above-trend profitability has come to an end, destroyed by the billions of dollars that large producers have ploughed into new, low-cost capacity.
In spite of the price slump, the big three iron ore producers – BHP Billiton, Rio and Vale – have no plans to change their strategies to increase production, even though some leading shareholders are questioning whether they should be adding more tonnes to an oversupplied market.
As low cost producers, BHP and its rivals are betting prices will stabilise and the market rebalance as smaller miners with higher overheads become uncompetitive and are forced to curtail production.
BHP said this week that an expansion of its Australian operations would reward shareholders even at current prices.
It said raising output was the right strategy to make the most of its investment – $22bn in the past five years – in iron ore mines in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.