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2014-08-19
本月早些時(shí)候，中國(guó)國(guó)家能源局局長(zhǎng)吳新雄表示，將2020年頁(yè)巖氣產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)下調(diào)至300億立方米。相比之下，下調(diào)前的目標(biāo)是600至800億立方米。雖然頁(yè)巖氣的產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)被大幅下調(diào)，中國(guó)要想難實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)還是很難。目前，中國(guó)只有一個(gè)大型頁(yè)巖氣項(xiàng)目投入了商業(yè)化生產(chǎn)，就是中石化在四川涪陵的氣田。這家國(guó)有企業(yè)預(yù)計(jì)涪陵頁(yè)巖氣產(chǎn)量在2016年和2017年將分別達(dá)到50億立方米和100億立方米，被認(rèn)為是中國(guó)最有價(jià)值的頁(yè)巖氣田。去年，全中國(guó)的頁(yè)巖氣總產(chǎn)量只不過(guò)是2億立方米，所以很難想象如何實(shí)現(xiàn)2020年的目標(biāo)，甚至實(shí)現(xiàn)2015年總產(chǎn)量達(dá)到65億立方米的目標(biāo)難度也很大。
在提到頁(yè)巖氣的時(shí)候，成本才是關(guān)鍵所在。眾所周知，水力壓裂和水平鉆探技術(shù)其實(shí)已經(jīng)誕生 幾十年。美國(guó)之所以能實(shí)現(xiàn)頁(yè)巖氣大繁榮——美國(guó)現(xiàn)在不僅是全球最大的天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)，還是最大的碳?xì)浠衔锷a(chǎn)國(guó)——是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)人找出了高效開(kāi)采的辦法。
中國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣的生產(chǎn)成本大約是美國(guó)的四倍。換言之，它的成本要高出液化天然氣價(jià)格。北京方面無(wú)疑將縮小這一差距，不過(guò)這絕不意味著可以確保在中國(guó)開(kāi)采頁(yè)巖氣的經(jīng)濟(jì)可行性。中國(guó)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人似乎更加擔(dān)心，如何為國(guó)有企業(yè)保留最好的氣田，并確保這些企業(yè)可以發(fā)展自己的專(zhuān)長(zhǎng)，以使利潤(rùn)留在中國(guó)人的手里。中石化最大的驕傲就是，其在涪陵的所有生產(chǎn)工具和設(shè)備均為國(guó)產(chǎn)。
中國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣面臨的是一種開(kāi)采成本居高不下而售價(jià)卻被人為壓低的局面。這一切都預(yù)示著，中國(guó)的技術(shù)官僚們將無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)2020年的目標(biāo)。(由中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)轉(zhuǎn)載自福布斯中文網(wǎng))
Aug.19, 2014
Earlier this month, Wu Xinxiong, Director General of China's National Energy Bureau, said that shale gas production target in 2020 is reduced to 30 billion cubic meters. In contrast, the goal before the reduction was 60 billion to 80 billion cubic meters. While shale gas production target is significantly reduced, it is still very difficult for China to achieve this goal. Currently, China has only one large project to commercialize shale gas production, Sinopec gas field inFuling, Sichuan Province. Shale gas production in this state-owned enterprises is expected to be 5 billion to 10 billion cubic meters in 2016 and 2017 respectively, which is considered as China's most valuable shale gas field. Last year, all the China's shale gas production is only 200 million cubic meters, so it is hard to imagine how to achieve the 2020 target. Moreover, it is much more difficult to achieve 2015 production goal of 6.5 billion cubic meters.
When referring to shale gas, the cost is the key point. As we all know, hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology has already been evented for decades. U.S. shale gas has been able to achieve great prosperity - United States is now not only the world's largest natural gas producer, but also the largest hydrocarbon production country - because Americans find an efficient mining method.
China’s shale gas production cost is about four times than the United States. In other words, its costs are higher than the price of liquefied natural gas. Beijing will undoubtedly narrow the gap, but this in no way means that you can ensure that the conomic viability of economic viability exploitation in China. China's leaders seem to be more worried about how to help state-owned enterprises retain the best field, and ensure that these companies can develop their own expertise to make the profits in the hands of Chinese people. Sinopec is most proud of the fact that all of its production tools and equipment in Fuling are made in China.
China’s shale gas exploitation is faced with a situation that the mining cost is high while the price was artificially lowered. All this indicates that China's technocrats will not be able to achieve 2020 goals.
(Translated by m.dzkf.net)
本月早些時(shí)候，中國(guó)國(guó)家能源局局長(zhǎng)吳新雄表示，將2020年頁(yè)巖氣產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)下調(diào)至300億立方米。相比之下，下調(diào)前的目標(biāo)是600至800億立方米。雖然頁(yè)巖氣的產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)被大幅下調(diào)，中國(guó)要想難實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)還是很難。目前，中國(guó)只有一個(gè)大型頁(yè)巖氣項(xiàng)目投入了商業(yè)化生產(chǎn)，就是中石化在四川涪陵的氣田。這家國(guó)有企業(yè)預(yù)計(jì)涪陵頁(yè)巖氣產(chǎn)量在2016年和2017年將分別達(dá)到50億立方米和100億立方米，被認(rèn)為是中國(guó)最有價(jià)值的頁(yè)巖氣田。去年，全中國(guó)的頁(yè)巖氣總產(chǎn)量只不過(guò)是2億立方米，所以很難想象如何實(shí)現(xiàn)2020年的目標(biāo)，甚至實(shí)現(xiàn)2015年總產(chǎn)量達(dá)到65億立方米的目標(biāo)難度也很大。
在提到頁(yè)巖氣的時(shí)候，成本才是關(guān)鍵所在。眾所周知，水力壓裂和水平鉆探技術(shù)其實(shí)已經(jīng)誕生 幾十年。美國(guó)之所以能實(shí)現(xiàn)頁(yè)巖氣大繁榮——美國(guó)現(xiàn)在不僅是全球最大的天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)，還是最大的碳?xì)浠衔锷a(chǎn)國(guó)——是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)人找出了高效開(kāi)采的辦法。
中國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣的生產(chǎn)成本大約是美國(guó)的四倍。換言之，它的成本要高出液化天然氣價(jià)格。北京方面無(wú)疑將縮小這一差距，不過(guò)這絕不意味著可以確保在中國(guó)開(kāi)采頁(yè)巖氣的經(jīng)濟(jì)可行性。中國(guó)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人似乎更加擔(dān)心，如何為國(guó)有企業(yè)保留最好的氣田，并確保這些企業(yè)可以發(fā)展自己的專(zhuān)長(zhǎng)，以使利潤(rùn)留在中國(guó)人的手里。中石化最大的驕傲就是，其在涪陵的所有生產(chǎn)工具和設(shè)備均為國(guó)產(chǎn)。
中國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣面臨的是一種開(kāi)采成本居高不下而售價(jià)卻被人為壓低的局面。這一切都預(yù)示著，中國(guó)的技術(shù)官僚們將無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)2020年的目標(biāo)。(由中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)轉(zhuǎn)載自福布斯中文網(wǎng))
Earlier this month, Wu Xinxiong, Director General of China's National Energy Bureau, said that shale gas production target in 2020 is reduced to 30 billion cubic meters. In contrast, the goal before the reduction was 60 billion to 80 billion cubic meters. While shale gas production target is significantly reduced, it is still very difficult for China to achieve this goal. Currently, China has only one large project to commercialize shale gas production, Sinopec gas field inFuling, Sichuan Province. Shale gas production in this state-owned enterprises is expected to be 5 billion to 10 billion cubic meters in 2016 and 2017 respectively, which is considered as China's most valuable shale gas field. Last year, all the China's shale gas production is only 200 million cubic meters, so it is hard to imagine how to achieve the 2020 target. Moreover, it is much more difficult to achieve 2015 production goal of 6.5 billion cubic meters.
When referring to shale gas, the cost is the key point. As we all know, hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology has already been evented for decades. U.S. shale gas has been able to achieve great prosperity - United States is now not only the world's largest natural gas producer, but also the largest hydrocarbon production country - because Americans find an efficient mining method.
China’s shale gas production cost is about four times than the United States. In other words, its costs are higher than the price of liquefied natural gas. Beijing will undoubtedly narrow the gap, but this in no way means that you can ensure that the conomic viability of economic viability exploitation in China. China's leaders seem to be more worried about how to help state-owned enterprises retain the best field, and ensure that these companies can develop their own expertise to make the profits in the hands of Chinese people. Sinopec is most proud of the fact that all of its production tools and equipment in Fuling are made in China.
China’s shale gas exploitation is faced with a situation that the mining cost is high while the price was artificially lowered. All this indicates that China's technocrats will not be able to achieve 2020 goals.
(Translated by m.dzkf.net)
