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除非出現(xiàn)巨大意外，否則美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)公開市場委員會(huì)將于今日宣布上調(diào)目標(biāo)利率，這將是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)9年多來首次加息。三個(gè)月前，來自市場的壓力迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)放棄了加息計(jì)劃。
自那以來，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)受命管理的兩項(xiàng)指標(biāo)——通脹和失業(yè)率——的走勢讓加息理由更為強(qiáng)勁。但迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在9月份推遲加息的市場壓力——包括大宗商品價(jià)格下跌、新興市場（尤其是中國）貨幣貶值以及信貸市場緊張——自那以來大多不減反增。市場極大地加大了加息決定的難度。
自9月15日以來，市場通脹預(yù)測實(shí)際上有所下降，市場現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)未來10年的平均通脹率為1.47%，低于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的目標(biāo)利率。
美國股市自9月15日以來上漲，但這幾乎完全歸因于大公司的上漲，涵蓋市值前50名股票的羅素50指數(shù)上漲6.4%，而包括較小公司股票的羅素2000指數(shù)下跌3%。
新興市場貨幣進(jìn)一步貶值2.6%。而人民幣兌美元匯率先是企穩(wěn)，然后進(jìn)一步下跌，現(xiàn)在比今年8月份的任何水平都低。在信貸市場，投資者上周對(duì)被視為最高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的高收益“垃圾”信貸價(jià)格大幅下跌感到震驚。美林(Merrill Lynch)高收益指數(shù)在過去3個(gè)月里下跌約6.5%。
盡管有所有這些指標(biāo)，但壓倒性的市場觀點(diǎn)依然是，期待已久的加息終將來臨，聯(lián)邦基金利率期貨市場走勢顯示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息幾率為76%。
這種觀點(diǎn)的主要理由是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)。自9月份以來，失業(yè)率從5.1%降至5.0%，同時(shí)上月核心通脹率升至2%。薪資通脹達(dá)到每月2.5%，為危機(jī)之后的最高水平。這解釋了為何市場預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)終將加息，但它們沒有讓這項(xiàng)任務(wù)變得輕松一些。
Barring a huge surprise, the US Federal Reserve’s open market committee is expected today to unveil its first rise in target rates in more than nine years, three months after pressure from markets forced it to abandon plans to raise rates at its September meeting.
Since then, the two key measures it is mandated to target — inflation and unemployment — have moved so as to give stronger justification for raising rates. But most of the market pressures that forced the Fed to delay a rate rise in September, including falling commodity prices, depreciating emerging market currencies, especially in China, and stressed credit markets, have only intensified since then. Markets have made the decision far harder.
Since September 15, market inflation forecasts have actually fallen, with markets now predicting average inflation of 1.47 per cent — below the Fed’s target rate — over the next 10 years.
US stocks have gained since September 15, but this is almost entirely due to big companies, with the Russell Top 50 index — covering the 50 largest stocks by market value — rising 6.4 per cent, while the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies has fallen by 3 per cent.
Emerging market currencies have depreciated a further 2.6 per cent. And the Chinese renminbi, after stabilising, has now weakened to a lower level against the dollar than at any point during August. In credit markets, investors were alarmed last week by a sharp fall for high-yield “junk” credit regarded as the highest risk. The Merrill Lynch index of high-yield is now down some 6.5 per cent over the past three months.
Despite all these measures, market opinion remained overwhelming that the long-awaited rate rise would at last arrive, with the Fed Funds futures market putting the chances at 76 per cent.
The main reason for this is the economy. Unemployment has ticked down from 5.1 to 5.0 per cent since September, while core inflation last month rose to 2 per cent. Wage inflation reached 2.5 per cent a month, a post-crisis high. This explains why markets expect the Fed to go through with a higher interest rate. But they did not make the task easy.
