美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)仍持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度

2014年從華盛頓報(bào)道,7月31日12:03等

馬丁·CRUTSINGER美聯(lián)社經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)作家

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)2014年有一個(gè)嚴(yán)峻的開始,現(xiàn)在顯現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈的勢(shì)頭，這種復(fù)蘇勢(shì)頭將持續(xù)到明年。

分析師根據(jù)周三政府4 - 6月季度的增長(zhǎng)率為4%的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)所得出的整體觀點(diǎn)。消費(fèi)者、企業(yè)和政府相結(jié)合為經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇注入了活力。政府還表示,相比去年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)要比之前估計(jì)的更強(qiáng)勢(shì)。

經(jīng)濟(jì)更良性增長(zhǎng)是否將導(dǎo)致美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備理事會(huì)(美聯(lián)儲(chǔ),fed)比預(yù)期的更早升息尚不清楚。周三美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)提供了一個(gè)復(fù)雜的信息:增長(zhǎng)正在加強(qiáng),失業(yè)率穩(wěn)步下降。它提到但從某種程度上就業(yè)市場(chǎng)仍然欠佳.

      美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為期兩天的政策會(huì)議后發(fā)表的一份聲明中表示在開始提高其關(guān)鍵的短期利率之前,它希望看到經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步改善。但并沒(méi)有提及具體什么時(shí)候提高利率。

相反,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)重申計(jì)劃“結(jié)束后其月度購(gòu)買債券后，會(huì)在相當(dāng)一段時(shí)間保持低短期利率。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)表示,將放緩一個(gè)月100億到250億美元債券購(gòu)買速度。購(gòu)買,旨在讓長(zhǎng)期借款利率保持低水平,在10月將結(jié)束。大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為一年左右可能加息。

經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)年2.1%增速，經(jīng)濟(jì)急劇萎縮的發(fā)展期，自上一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)突然反彈。政府提高了之前下降2.9%的估計(jì)。但它仍然是2009年初大蕭條最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)候以來(lái)最大收縮在。

上一季度的反彈驗(yàn)證了分析師的觀點(diǎn),即經(jīng)濟(jì)的勢(shì)頭延續(xù)到今年下半年,他們預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)年增長(zhǎng)率約為3%。

As US Economy Accelerates, Fed Remains Cautious

WASHINGTON — Jul 31, 2014, 12:03 AM ET

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER AP Economics Writer

    After a grim start to 2014, the U.S. economy has rebounded with vigor and should show renewed strength into next year.
That was the general view of analysts Wednesday after the government estimated that the economy grew at a fast 4 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter. Consumers, businesses and governments combined to fuel the expansion. The government also said growth was more robust last year than previously estimated.
Whether the healthier expansion will lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than expected is unclear. The Fed offered a mixed message on the economy Wednesday: Growth is strengthening, and the unemployment rate is steadily falling. Yet by some measures, it suggested, the job market remains subpar.
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A statement the Fed issued after a two-day policy meeting signaled that it wants to see further improvement before it starts raising its key short-term interest rate. It offered no clearer hint of when it will raise that rate.
Instead, the Fed reiterated its plan to keep short-term rates low "for a considerable time" after ends its monthly bond purchases. The Fed said it will slow the pace of its purchases by another $10 billion to $25 billion a month. The purchases, which have been intended to keep long-term borrowing rates low, are set to end in October. Most economists think a rate increase is about a year away.
The economy sprang back to life last quarter after a dismal winter in which it shrank at a sharp 2.1 percent annual rate. The government upgraded that decline from a previous estimate of a 2.9 percent drop. But it was still the biggest contraction since early 2009 in the depths of the Great Recession.
Last quarter's bounce-back reinforced analysts' view that the economy's momentum is extending into the second half of the year, when they forecast annual growth of around 3 percent.