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杰夫貝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)可能正鉚足了勁在西雅圖四處活動(dòng)，為他家的Fire Phone大聲吆喝，并鼓勵(lì)員工互相撕咬。
這位亞馬遜(Amazon)創(chuàng)始人聲稱，他經(jīng)營(yíng)的公司沒(méi)有批評(píng)者描述的那么冷酷。不過(guò)，不論他在做的是什么，都深得投資者的歡心。
今年7月，當(dāng)亞馬遜市值超過(guò)沃爾瑪(Walmart)時(shí)，曾引起巨大轟動(dòng)。而周一的另一則消息卻沒(méi)有引起絲毫的波瀾：亞馬遜的企業(yè)價(jià)值（等于市值減去現(xiàn)金、加上債務(wù)）攀升至2510億美元，超過(guò)了沃爾瑪，成為全球（名副其實(shí)的）最有價(jià)值的零售商。
今年早些時(shí)候，該公司的市值超過(guò)了另一家其創(chuàng)始人有著磁石般吸引力的公司：馬云的阿里巴巴(Alibaba)。盡管這家中國(guó)電子商務(wù)企業(yè)擁有更高的營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)率和更豐厚的利潤(rùn)率，它的市值卻在不斷縮水。上周五是阿里巴巴首次公開(kāi)招股(IPO)一周年紀(jì)念日。該公司股價(jià)目前已低于發(fā)行價(jià)，只有其歷史最高價(jià)的一半。
重新對(duì)阿里巴巴估值不乏充分理由，尤其是圍繞中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的擔(dān)憂，以及今年8月錄得3年來(lái)最慢營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)。不過(guò)，阿里巴巴的投入資本回報(bào)率(ROIC)是8%，亞馬遜只有-3%。即便營(yíng)收增速有所放緩，阿里巴巴目前的營(yíng)收增速也有40%，而亞馬遜的這個(gè)數(shù)字為17%。然而，如今享有估值溢價(jià)的卻是亞馬遜：該公司市值是明年預(yù)計(jì)息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(rùn)(EBITDA)的20倍，而阿里巴巴的這一比例只有19倍。
對(duì)阿里巴巴一度中斷的懷疑再度恢復(fù)。周一，阿里巴巴股票解除禁售，令包括馬云在內(nèi)的該公司大股東能夠拋售手中的股票。這些投資者此前表示，他們不會(huì)賣(mài)。雖然如此，該公司股價(jià)仍下跌了3%。阿里巴巴奇特的治理結(jié)構(gòu)，以及其企業(yè)價(jià)值緩慢回饋普通持股者的方式充滿不確定性，都是其股票遇冷的原因，然而這些并不是新近才出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題。
對(duì)阿里巴巴可能令投資者失望的擔(dān)憂已然扎根，對(duì)亞馬遜可能令投資者失望的擔(dān)憂卻已經(jīng)消失——盡管亞馬遜長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)恰恰在令投資者失望。（中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
Jeff Bezos may run around Seattle, war paint daubed on his head, barking orders into his Fire Phone, urging employees to be nasty to each other.
The Amazon founder claims to be running a gentler company than his critics portray. But whatever he’s doing, investors like it a lot.
There was great fanfare in July when Amazon’s market capitalisation surpassed Walmart’s. There was none on Monday when its enterprise value, which discounts cash and includes debt, rose to $251bn, overtaking the supermarket chain to become — for real this time — the world’s most valuable retailer.
Earlier this year, its value overtook that of another company whose founder has magnetic appeal: Jack Ma’s Alibaba. Even though the Chinese ecommerce company enjoys superior revenue growth and fatter margins, its value is sinking. The first anniversary of its initial public offering was on Friday. The shares are below the IPO price and half their high point.
There are some good reasons for reappraising Alibaba, notably Chinese economic worries and the slowest revenue growth in three years recorded in August. Yet Alibaba’s return on invested capital is 8 per cent; Amazon’s is minus 3 per cent. Even at a slightly slower pace, Alibaba’s revenue is growing at 40 per cent against Amazon’s 17 per cent. It is Amazon, though, that now commands a premium valuation: its enterprise value is 20 times next year’s forecast earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation compared with Alibaba at 19 times.
The suspension of disbelief in Alibaba has been punctured. A lock-up expired on Monday, enabling large investors (including Mr Ma) to sell. They said they would not. The stock still fell 3 per cent. Its strange governance structure and the precarious ways in which value trickles to common stockholders are all part of the problem, yet they are nothing new.
The worry that Alibaba might disappoint has taken hold; the worry that Amazon might disappoint has — in spite of its lengthy record of doing precisely that — vanished.
